Details1: | CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY LOSS
Report in Nature 427, 145-148 (8 Jan. 2004); by C.D. Thomas et al http://www.nature.com/nature/links/040108/040108-1.html
Many plant and animal species are unlikely to survive climate change. New analyses suggest that 15-37% of a sample of 1,103 land plants and animals would eventually become extinct as a result of climate changes expected by 2050. For some of these species there will no longer be anywhere suitable to live. Others will be unable to reach places where the climate is suitable. A rapid shift to technologies that do not produce greenhouse gases, combined with carbon sequestration, could save 15-20% of species from extinction. The cover shows a species in the firing line. Boyd's forest dragon, Hypsilurus boydii, is found in Queensland, Australia. About 90% of its distribution would become climatically unsuitable by 2050, on maximum climate warming scenarios. ---------------------------------
EXTINCTION RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE? Critique by Robert Ferguson, Center for Science and Public Policy Washington, DC
Much has been made of a paper published on January 8 in Nature by Chris Thomas and 18 co-authors claiming that global warming will cause a massive extinction of the earth's biota. Thomas told the Washington Post "we're talking about 1.25 million species. It's a massive number."
Thomas et al. performed an interesting exercise in modeling. They used an accepted logarithmic relationship between the area of an ecosystem and the number of species within. Using this function as a starting point, the researchers examined the current distributional area of 1,103 plant and animal species from different parts of the earth, and related that to temperature, rainfall, and seasonality. Then, using the output from various climate models runs under scenarios that produced low, mid, and high ranges of future global temperature change, they calculated the area of the regions that were defined by the same climate values as the current species distribution.
As an example, if a particular bird species in Europe is currently found in a region that gets no hotter than 35ºC in the summer and no colder than 0ºC in the winter, it is assumed that these same climate definitions will bound the species range in the future. If the range defined by those climatic conditions becomes smaller under projected future climate conditions, the species comes under pressure of extinction, if it stays the same or expands, the species is categorized as not facing increased extinction pressure. It is clear to see that this methodology can only lead to a reduced number of species (i.e. a growing number of extinctions). In other words, climate change is the sole driver of biodiversity in this calculation.
This assumption is not correct. Consider the effects on an ecosystem of the mutation of some previously harmless bacterium, a clearly non-climatic cause of extinction. But placing the entire onus for extinction on climate also calls the entire result into question.
Thomas et al. calculate percentage species extinctions for a variety of future climate scenarios. One, with a lower limit of 0.8ºC of warming in the next 50 years, produces an extinction of roughly 20% of the sampled species.
This results in a convenient Reality Check. Surface temperatures indeed have raised this amount in the last 100 years. But there is absolutely NO evidence for massive climate-related extinctions. (One would think the reviewers of this manuscript would have picked that up!).
There are several other major problems:
1. Global climate models, in general, predict a warmer surface and an increased rate of rainfall. In general, as long as there is adequate moisture, the most diverse ecosystems on earth are in the warmest regions, the tropical rainforest being the prime example. Consequently, the general character of future climate is one which is more, not less hospitable for biodiversity.
2. Temperatures have been bouncing up and down a lot more than 0.8ºC in the last several hundred thousand years. But Thomas' methodology implies that there are large extinctions for each and every increment of equivalent change, whether the temperature goes up or down. It is quite clear that the era from 4,000 to 7,000 years ago was 1-2ºC warmer than today, for example, and the rapid climate changes that took place before then, at the end of the last major glacial era, were multiple in nature, both up and down. Prior to then, there was the dramatic change known as the glaciation itself, when ice covered much of North America. Applying this method to all those changes should extinct just about every species on earth!
3. Species often thrive well outside their gross climatic "envelope". The U.S. Department of Agriculture has mapped the distribution of all major tree species North America. For almost every species, there are separate "disjunct" populations far away from the main climatic distribution. A fine example is the Balsam fir, Abies balsamea, whose main distribution is across Canada. But there is a tiny forest of the same remaining in eastern Iowa, hundreds of miles south (and about ten degrees warmer) than the climatic "envelope" that Thomas et al. assume circumscribes the species. These disjuncts are the rule, not the exception, and are one reason why the most diverse ecosystem on earth-the tropical rainforest-managed to survive the ice age.
The "disjuncts" exist because climate is simply not as uniform as it is calculated to be by gross climate models. Variations in topography and landform create cul-de-sacs where species survive and thrive far away from their climate envelopes. It is more logical to assume a fractionating climate will produce more disjuncts, not less.
4. Thomas et al. make what the famed agronomist Paul Waggoner has called the "dumb people" assumption: that in the face of a massive extinction there will be no human adaptation or mitigation of the prospect. In fact we have been preserving diversity artificially, in the form of parks and zoos, for centuries.
In addition, the amount of "artificial" genetic diversity is rising dramatically with the technology of modern genetics. It is difficult to imagine, decades from now, that these technologies will not be applied to ameliorate some prospective massive extinction.
Obviously, there is a lot to criticize in this paper. What is surprising is that something with such inconsistencies and unrealistic assumptions made it unscathed through the review process in such a prestigious journal as Nature.
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